Description
This paper uses complex systems theory (Baggio, 2008; Baggio & Sainaghi, 2011; Postma & Yeoman, 2021; McKercher, 1999) to study business travel to Amsterdam before and after the Covid-pandemic. It uses a large dataset of hotel check-ins and check-outs in a large sample of 55% of hotels in the city during 2019, 2022 and 2023. These data were explored to detect changes in the actual behaviour of business travellers; and they were subjected to a series of tests proposed by Baggio and Sainaghi (2011) to quantitatively assess the dynamics of non-linear complex tourism systems. In light of the literature revealing shifts in business travel demographics and evolving travel choices driven by health, work-life balance, and environmental concerns, this study provides a critical examination of these trends in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Several scholars advocated or envisioned a ‘reset’ of tourism after the Covid pandemic (Brouder, 2020; Gössling, Scott, & Hall, 2020; Niewiadomski, 2020; Prideaux, Thompson, & Pabel, 2020; Sigala, 2020). Others suggested that the growth of tourism could have undermined its resilience to disruptions (Postma & Yeoman, 2021), or that the economic and political aftermath of the crisis could have long-lasting effects (Oskam & Davis, 2023). However, despite the temporary disruption caused by the pandemic, our findings suggest that the underlying dynamics of business travel continue to evolve in a similar direction as before. However, we also detect morphological changes within the system of business travel: shifts on the demand side in the markets of origin, longer stays and incipient signals for a shift to midscale hotels and bleisure stays. Also, the study confirms the existence of a dissonance between actual behaviour and the desire to reduce business travel for environmental or social reasons.
By applying complex systems theory to a large dataset of hotel check-ins and check-outs, this research contributes to our understanding of the resilience and adaptability of business travel. It highlights the need for strategic foresight and scenario planning in the hospitality and tourism sectors, and underscores the importance of monitoring small emergent changes that can have a profound impact on the system. As such, this study not only enriches the existing literature on business travel but also provides valuable insights for practitioners navigating the complexities and uncertainties of the post-pandemic world.
